电测与仪表2017，Vol.54Issue(22)：16-22,7.
基于Copula理论和切片采样技术结合拉丁超立方抽样的概率潮流计算
Probabilistic load flow calculation based on Copula theory and slice sampling techniq ue combined with Latin hypercube sampling
摘要
Abstract
To assess the impact of large-scale new energy sources on the probabilistic power flow(PLF)of power sys-tems,a Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)PLF method based on Copula theory, slice sampling and Latin hyper-cube sampling is proposed in this paper.The probabilistic model of the correlative input variables is established by the Copula theory with the Kendall rank correlation coefficient which is used to measure the correlations.The sample space of random input variables is obtained by slice sampling and the Latin hypercube sampling is further introduced to deal with the initial samples to improve the calculation efficiency.The modified IEEE 14-bus system is used as an ex-ample to demonstrate the correctness and effectiveness of the presented method and the influence of correlations be -tween wind and photovoltaic power outputs on PLF is studied.The results show that wind and photovoltaic combined increases the reliability and economy of system operation and consideration of the correlations will provide a more ac -curate assessment on the effect of wind and photovoltaic outputs on PLF.关键词
概率潮流/Copula理论/切片采样/拉丁超立方抽样/相关性Key words
probabilistic load flow/Copula theory/slice sampling/Latin hypercube sampling/correlation分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
毛晓明,叶嘉俊,魏焕政,李牧星..基于Copula理论和切片采样技术结合拉丁超立方抽样的概率潮流计算[J].电测与仪表,2017,54(22):16-22,7.基金项目
广东省自然科学基金资助项目(2014A030313509) （2014A030313509）
