电力系统自动化2018，Vol.42Issue(1)：55-60,124,7.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170327007
基于相对值法和Hurst指数的电网停电事故自相关性分析
Self-correlation Analysis of Power Grid Blackouts Based on Relative Value Method and Hurst Exponent
摘要
Abstract
To reveal the internal dynamics mechanism of blackouts in power grid of China from both the macro and global perspective,the correlation of blackouts in power grid of China is analyzed.Firstly,based on the relative value and the R/S method,the power loss correlation of blackouts in power grid of China from 1981 to 2014 is researched.It is proved that the power losses of blackouts in power grid of China have the strong long-range correlation,to determine the direction of correlation,and to effectively measure the degree of correlation according to the Hurst exponent.Secondly,over time,the change of the power loss correlation of blackouts in power grid of China is analyzed.It is revealed that the positive correlation is becoming stronger while the degree of correlation is becoming higher than the power losses of blackouts in power grid of China.Finally,on the macro level,the trend of the absolute value continues to increase and relative value continues to decrease for the power losses of large blackouts in power grid of China in the next few years can be predicted.关键词
停电事故/相对值法/自相关性/R/S方法/Hurst指数/趋势预测Key words
blackouts/relative value method/self-correlation/R/S method/Hurst exponent/trend prediction引用本文复制引用
于群,屈玉清,石良..基于相对值法和Hurst指数的电网停电事故自相关性分析[J].电力系统自动化,2018,42(1):55-60,124,7.基金项目
山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2016 EEM13).This work is supported by Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(No.ZR2016EEM13). （ZR2016 EEM13）
