电力系统自动化2018，Vol.42Issue(1)：61-67,7.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170328001
计及元胞发展程度的空间负荷预测方法
Spatial Load Forecasting Method Based on Development Degree of Cell
摘要
Abstract
For the problem of the classified loads in different cells with different development degrees that may cause the unbalanced cellular load distribution liable to lead to undesirable effects on the accuracy of spatial load forecasting results,a method of spatial load forecasting based on the development degree of cell load is proposed.Firstly,the electric power geographic information system is established,on which cells are generated.And the basic information is integrated including the land use information,10 kV feeder power supply area and classified load data.Secondly,the saturated load value of the total classified load density,and the development law of total classified load density are determined by the growth curve.Then the position each cell classified load density is in in the current year on the total classified load density development curve is found,as the development degree of the classified load density of each cell.Finally,the current year development degree and the total classified load density development law curve are used to forecast the size of the classified load density of each cell in the target year,then multiplied by the corresponding area,and the result is the cell load of the predicted value.An example analysis shows the correctness and the effectiveness of the method.关键词
空间负荷预测/元胞发展程度/地理信息系统/分类负荷/饱和负荷Key words
spatial load forecasting/development degree of cell/geographic information system/classified load/saturated load引用本文复制引用
肖白,杨欣桐,田莉,綦雪松..计及元胞发展程度的空间负荷预测方法[J].电力系统自动化,2018,42(1):61-67,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51177009).This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51177009). （51177009）
