电子科技大学学报2018，Vol.47Issue(1)：66-72,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0548.2018.01.010
基于证据理论和代理模型的QMU分析
Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Approach Using Evidence Theory and Surrogate Model
摘要
Abstract
The structure reliability or performance assessment of complex systems with both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is a challenge problem for engineering systems. In this paper, an implementation framework of systems reliability assessment based on the quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU) methodology is proposed. The description of QMU concept is introduced first, then the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence is used to present the presence of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the proposed QMU implementation framework. To alleviate the computational costs, the Kriging model has been implemented as the surrogate for the structure response. Then the structure reliability was presented by a QMU metric in terms of confidence factor(CF). The technique is demonstrated by a numerical example to account for the computational efficiency. The difference between QMU metric and non-probabilistic reliability methods is discussed关键词
证据理论/Kriging模型/混合不确定性传播/裕量与不确定性量化Key words
Dempster-Shafer theory/Kriging model/mixed uncertainty propagation/quantification of margins and uncertainties分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
谢朝阳,李贵杰,彭忠明,黄洪钟..基于证据理论和代理模型的QMU分析[J].电子科技大学学报,2018,47(1):66-72,7.基金项目
中国工程物理研究院-国家自然科学基金委联合基金(NSAF U1330130) （NSAF U1330130）
总装技术基础项目(2013ZK1.2) （2013ZK1.2）
