森林与环境学报2018，Vol.38Issue(1)：57-63,7.DOI:10.13324/j.cnki.jfcf.2018.01.010
基于最优权重的落叶松单木叶面积组合预测模型
Optimal weighted combinatorial forecasting mod el of tree leaf area of Larix olgensis
摘要
Abstract
Optimal weighted combinatorial model can reduce predicting risk of single model and improve the predicting precision. Fifty five larch ( Larix olgensis) trees were collected randomly at the Xiaoxing′an Mountains in Northeast China for fitting the univariate ( or multivariate) variable nonlinear and linear leaf area model, and the optimal weights of combination forecasting model determined by the optima tool box in Matlab 2010b software.Results showed diameter at breast height (D1.3) is the best prediction variable for estimating larch leaf area.The modified allometric equation with adding the ratio of tree height to D1.3 , with a higher explanation ability ( R2=0.927) .The index of accuracy evaluation for optimal weighted combinatorial model ( OW) was better than the single model and the mean weighted combinatorial model, and the OW-M3M8M12 forecasting model improved accuracy for predicting leaf area of individual tree.The optimal weighted combination forecasting model suit for estimating leaf area.The leaf area model would be used for estimating the leaf area index for pure larch plantation.关键词
组合预测模型/最优权重/落叶松人工林/叶面积/异速生长方程Key words
ensemble forecast model/optimal weight/larch plantation/leaf area/allometric equation分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
郭孝玉,余坤勇,李增禄,陈春乐,刘健..基于最优权重的落叶松单木叶面积组合预测模型[J].森林与环境学报,2018,38(1):57-63,7.基金项目
"十三五"国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFD0600901-3) （2017YFD0600901-3）
福建省高校产学合作重大项目(2015N5010) （2015N5010）
三明学院引进高层次人才科研启动经费(16YG03) （16YG03）
3S技术与资源优化利用福建省高校重点实验室开放课题. （）
