灌溉排水学报2017，Vol.36Issue(12)：118-122,5.DOI:10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2017.12.019
西安市可利用降水量特征分析及预测
Analyzing and Predicting the Applicable Precipitation in Xi'an City
摘要
Abstract
Using the meteorological data measured from 1951 to 2015 at the Xi'an station,we analyzed and fore-casted the variation of applicable precipitation in this area,using linear analysis method,Mann-Kendall method and orderly clustering method.We analyzed the trend and mutation change of rainfall and established a model to predict the applicable precipitation in Xi'an City using the weighted Markov chain.The results showed that the annual available precipitation varied,and the available precipitation years mainly changed with seasons,and the overall trend was reduced.Mutation analysis showed that the actual mutation of available precipitation occurred in 1957,1966,1974 and 1983.The comparison between actual value and predictive value showed that the model was capable of forecasting the available precipitation with small errors.The available precipitation in 2015 and 2016 was forecasted,and the values were 100.04 mm and 123.43 mm respectively.关键词
降水量/Mann-Kendall法/加权马尔科夫链/趋势分析/西安市Key words
available precipitation/Mann-Kendall method/weighted chain/trend analysis/Xi'an city分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王海科,李亚斌,钱会..西安市可利用降水量特征分析及预测[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(12):118-122,5.基金项目
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301084) （201301084）
