农业工程学报2018，Vol.34Issue(1)：178-185,8.DOI:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2018.01.024
玉米优良品种推广重心转移及扩散的时空规律
Temporal and spatial law ofpromotion center moving and diffusion of excellent maize varieties
摘要
Abstract
Finding the suitable planting environment for the maize variety plays a decisive role in crop varieties precision marketing. New varieties need to adapt to the promotion environment quickly and be supposed to behave well. However, the performance of crop variety during field production results from genotype effect, environment effect, and genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) effect. So far, the performance of varieties has showed great difference in the promotion stage. On the one hand, the excellent promoted varieties are not sufficient. The analysis methods of characteristics and attributions are still in the initial stage and the index definition varies differently. On the other hand, the laws of characteristics of the excellent maize variety performance have not been fully excavated. For most of the varieties, which have gone through the national regional test, variety certification and screening, the characteristics and rules have not been fully mined. Therefore, many approved varieties have not been accepted by the market in different spatial scales. In this paper, based on the data of the cultivated area of the varieties that have been approved and entered into the promotion period from 1982 to 2012, we fit and verify the applicability of Gaussian model in the province scale. Firstly, we provide a classification method, which helps to find out the excellent promoted varieties and explore the rule of promotion center transformation and diffusion from the different spatial scales. We select the maize varieties whose planting area has reached 6.67 million hectare or more and the promotion time is more than 5 years, and the life cycle curve of variety is fitted in both national and provincial scales. Secondly, we classify the varieties and choose the excellent varieties combined with spatial information, discovering the rules that the excellent maize varieties can be divided into 2 categories, which are big varieties, which should be promoted in most of the provinces with larger area and longer time across the country and reflect the universal suitability, and regional special varieties, which should be promoted in only limited provinces with larger area and longer time and reflect the special suitability. Last but not the least, the method can quickly find out excellent corn varieties and select the characteristics of the varieties that can be taken as key indicators for promotion. We have explored the temporal and spatial diffusion law of excellent varieties, as well as the promotion center's transformation distribution, in order to summarize all kinds of suitable promotion models of varieties. According to the results, excellent varieties in the national and provincial scale conform to the Gaussian life cycle curve of varieties, which obviously has characteristics of space and time. Besides, the diffusion modes of the big varieties and regional special varieties are different. For the big varieties, the promotion center always transfers to the nearby provinces, which means it can radiate to the surrounding environment. For the regional special varieties, the promotion center always starts from several provinces but transfers to the distant one or two provinces, which means it has a leaping diffusion. The performance of excellent maize varieties in different provinces also behaves differently in the same ecological region. The structure and replacement of varieties are also not the same from provinces to provinces, which are relevant to the way of the province promotion and the acceptance of varieties. In conclusion, based on geographic information system (GIS), this article has preliminarily exploited the temporal and spatial diffusion law of excellent promoted maize varieties as well as the promotion center's transformation distribution, which are from the Huang-Huai-Hai maize planting region and the Dong-Hua-Bei maize planting region. It suggests that excellent promoted varieties should be promoted at the regional scale, which is of great significance for guiding crop varieties suitability analysis and variety test design in the target maize planting region.关键词
作物/统计/模型/品种推广/时空特征/优良品种Key words
crops/statistics/models/promote varieties/time-space characteristics/excellent varieties分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
刘哲,曲艺伟,赵祖亮,李绍明,张晓东..玉米优良品种推广重心转移及扩散的时空规律[J].农业工程学报,2018,34(1):178-185,8.基金项目
北京市重大项目课题(D171100002317002) （D171100002317002）
京津冀作物新品种推广服务云平台建设应用 （）
