水利水电科技进展2018，Vol.38Issue(1)：68-74,7.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1006-7647.2018.01.010
新疆玛纳斯河年径流频率分析
Annual runoff frequency analysis of the Manas River in Xinjiang
摘要
Abstract
To carry out frequency analysis for the Manas River in Xinjiang based on the nearly 60 years runoff sequence, a mixed distribution model and a conditional probability distribution model were constructed using the Mann-Kendall test and t-test. The results shows that the annual runoff series of the Manas River in 1956～2014 have great variations and the year 1995 is the sequence variation year. In the upper part of the fitted curve, the mixed distribution and the conditional probability distribution are similar, but big difference exists compared the P-III distribution. In the middle of the fitted curve, the fitting effect of the mixed distribution is better than both conditional probability distribution and P-III distribution. In the lower part of the fitted curve, the fitting effects of all the three distributions are pretty good, and there is no obvious fluctuations. Through the K-S test analysis and comparing the values of OLS, ABS and AIC, the mixed distribution model is more suitable for frequency analysis of the annual runoff in the Manas River Basin.关键词
年径流/混合分布/条件概率分布/P-Ⅲ分布/非一致性/玛纳斯河Key words
annual runoff/mixed distribution/conditional probability distribution/P-Ⅲ distribution/inconsistency/the Manas River分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
郑锦涛,陈伏龙,张鑫厚,廖欢..新疆玛纳斯河年径流频率分析[J].水利水电科技进展,2018,38(1):68-74,7.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0404301) （2017YFC0404301）
国家自然科学基金(51769029,51069011) （51769029,51069011）
