铁道标准设计2017，Vol.61Issue(12)：5-9,5.DOI:10.13238/j.issn.1004-2954.2017.12.002
基于改进型灰色理论模型的山区高速铁路路基沉降变形分析
Analysis of Settlement and Deformation of Mountain Railway Subgrade Based on Improved Grey Prediction Model
摘要
Abstract
Settlement analysis is one of the key processes and necessary requirements in ballast track construction.This paper takes Chongqing-Wanzhou Railway as an example,and employs improved grey prediction models of NpGM (1,1) and UQGM (1,1) to analyze settlement and deformation during ballast track construction.The two models have more stable and correlative prediction compared with that of the traditional method.For the nine test points,NpGM (1,1) and UQGM (1,1) obtain the correlation value bigger than 0.97,which is significantly better than the value obtained by the traditional method (around 0.8,and bigger than 0.9 for only a few test points);the S(t)/S(∞) values obtained by the improved models are close or equal to 1.0,which is much larger than the traditional model.The results show that the improved models are applicable in the prediction of south-west mountain railways settlement and deformation and may provide references for deformation prediction of similar mountain railway subgrade.关键词
改进型灰色预测模型/有砟轨道/高速铁路/路基/沉降变形/评估Key words
Improved grey prediction model/Ballast track/High-speed railway/Subgrade/Settlement and deformation/Assessment分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
王明慧,王作钰,高玉明,张桥..基于改进型灰色理论模型的山区高速铁路路基沉降变形分析[J].铁道标准设计,2017,61(12):5-9,5.基金项目
中铁第四勘察设计院集团有限公司科技研究计划项目(2015K117) （2015K117）
