水科学进展2017，Vol.28Issue(6)：839-848,10.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.06.005
坡面泥石流降雨预报模型
Prediction model of hillslope debris flows
摘要
Abstract
Hillslope debris flows are the major geological hazards in East China. It is very important to predict these dangerous phenomena. Three groups of conditions related to topography, geology and hydrology have influence on the triggering of these hillslope debris flows. We isolated and analyzed the influence of the topography on the triggering of hillslope debris flows in catchments with almost identical hydrological and geological conditions and propose a new so called T-condition as a topographical indicator which is a combination of slope angle, upslope contributing area and cross-section and free-face of a (potential) hillslope debris flow. The T-condition can be used to define threshold val-ues for possible hillslope debris flow development. Higher T-condition values are related to higher probabilities of deb-ris flow events. An R-condition is used as a rainfall indicator, which is a combination of the antecedent one hour rain-fall, the antecedent cumulative rainfall and the annual rainfall. Higher R-condition values are generally related to higher probabilities of hillslope debris flow events. The prediction condition P, which is the combination of T and R, gives a final indication of debris flow probability and it can be used to define threshold values for the hillslope debris flows.关键词
地形条件/降雨条件/坡面泥石流/预报模型Key words
topographical condition/rainfall condition/hillslope debris flow/prediction model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
余斌,朱云波,刘秧..坡面泥石流降雨预报模型[J].水科学进展,2017,28(6):839-848,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目( 41672341)The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 41672341). （ 41672341）
