水科学进展2017，Vol.28Issue(6)：858-867,10.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.06.007
基于力学过程的蓄滞洪区洪水风险评估模型及应用
A mechanics-based model of flood risk assessment and its application in a flood diversion zone
摘要
Abstract
In order to calculate the flood risk in flood diversion zones under the condition of the operation of a diver-sion project, a mechanics-based based model of flood risk in flood diversion zones is proposed. The 2-D hydrodynamic module is used to simulate the processes of flood inundation in a flood diversion zone. A mechanics-based formula for the incipient velocity of a human body for toppling instability, the empirical formulas for flood loss of buildings and crops are adopted to evaluate the flood risks to flooded objects. Then the 2-D hydrodynamic module was verified a-gainst the two physical experimental data of flood flows, with a favourable agreement being obtained between the pre-dicted and measured data. Finally, the proposed model was used to predict the flood inundation process and assesse the flood risks to people and property during the operation of the Jingjiang flood diversion zone. The results show the average loss rates of human body, building, rice and cotton would be 80％, 59％, 63％ and 72％ at 140 h. A me-chanics-based method is adopted in the proposed model for flood risk analysis, which is better than empirical methods based on water depths in evaluating flood risk. It would be helpful for flood risk management and providing a reference to the operation standards in flood diversion zones, and could be applied to risk analysis of extreme floods such as flows of dam-break and landslide dam break.关键词
洪水风险评估/水动力学模型/人体稳定性/财产损失/荆江分洪区Key words
flood risk assessment/hydrodynamic based model/people stability/property hazard/Jingjiang flood di-version zone分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
果鹏,夏军强,陈倩,李娜..基于力学过程的蓄滞洪区洪水风险评估模型及应用[J].水科学进展,2017,28(6):858-867,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目( 51379156 （）
51725902)The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51379156 （）
No. 51725902). （）
