水利学报2017，Vol.48Issue(12)：1473-1481,1489,10.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20170524
水文序列跳跃变异点的滑动相关系数识别方法
Moving correlation coefficient-based method for the detection of change-points in hydrological time series
摘要
Abstract
Detection of change-point is a primary task for the analysis of nonstationary hydrological time series.Those methods used presently for the practice cannot directly reflect the essence of changes in a time series.To overcome the problem,in this paper we first derived the expression of correlation coefficient between the original series and the jump-component series,and then quantified the relationship between the correlation coefficient and the difference degree of mean value before and after the change-point.Based on it,we proposed a new method for the detection of change-point in a time series,called moving-correlation coefficient-based detection method.Results of statistical experiments indicate that the proposed method is easy to be conducted,and the correlation coefficient is easily calculated,too.When encountering the influence of series length,position of change-point,and difference of mean value,variation coefficient and skewness coefficient before and after change-point,the proposed method has similar performance as those of the Pettitt test and Brown-Forsythe test,both of which have been widely used for detecting change-point.But the former has more stable efficiency.The proposed method was then applied to detect the change-points in the runoff processes at multi-time scales at the Yunjinghong hydrological station in the lower reaches of the Lancang River basin.The results indicate that the construction and operation of the water conservancy projects have great influence on the streamflow regimes of the basin,causing more water in dry season and less in the wet season in a year,and the obvious variability and abrupt changes in the runoff process in around 2004.关键词
跳跃变异识别/水文变异/相关系数/澜沧江/径流/多时间尺度Key words
change-point detection/hydrological variability/correlation coefficient/Lancang River/runoff/multi-time scale分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
吴子怡,谢平,桑燕芳,雷旭,袁树堂,王超..水文序列跳跃变异点的滑动相关系数识别方法[J].水利学报,2017,48(12):1473-1481,1489,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重大研究计划重点项目(91547205)与培育项目(91647110) （91547205）
国家自然科学基金项目(51579181) （51579181）
湖南省重大水利科技项目(湘水科计[2015]13-21) （湘水科计[2015]13-21）
中国科学院青年创新促进会项目(2017074) （2017074）
