生态学报2017，Vol.37Issue(24)：8264-8274,11.DOI:10.5846/stxb201611152317
基于PSR模型的凌河口湿地生态系统健康评价与预警研究
Study on ecosystem health evaluation and risk assessment for Linghekou wetlands based on a PSR model
摘要
Abstract
As one of the Liaoning nature reserves,the Linghe estuary wetland is an important component of the Liaohe Delta.Data from TM images in 1995,2000,2005,2009 and 2014,were used to build a spatial information database of the Linghekou Wetland Nature Reserve and determine landscape dates of 5 periods using 3S technology.In this study,we evaluated Linghekou wetland ecosystem health using the purpose-built Linghekou wetland ecosystem health evaluation based on the Press-Status-Response (PSR) concept model.We used the expert evaluation index combined with the AHP evaluation to comprehensively evaluate the use of a logistic growth model for each index based on the assessment of a single index.The ecosystem health values were 0.642 and 0.617 in 1995 and 2000,respectively,indicating that the ecosystem health was better in 1995 than 2000;the ecosystem health values were 0.524,0.436,and 0.405 in 2005,2009 and 2014,respectively,which showed that the ecosystem was in a sub-healthy state and some necessary measures should to be immediately taken.Based on this study,we used the Grey prediction model to build a wetland ecosystem health prediction model and tested the model for accuracy.The correlation and mean square error ratio and the small error probability were primary concerns;the model accuracy was high enough to effectively predict the ecosystem health of the Linghekou wetland.The prediction values for the Linghekou wetland ecosystem health were 0.357,0.321,0.291 and 0.267 in 2019,2024,2029 and 2034.The wetland ecosystem health was in a general poor state and this trend is expected to worsen.Ecosystem health threats are very serious and necessitate more protection and management of wetland ecosystems to ensure their survival.关键词
PSR模型/健康评价/灰色系统预测/凌河口湿地Key words
PSR model/ecosystem health evaluation/Grey prediction/wetlands in Linghe River estuary引用本文复制引用
徐浩田,周林飞,成遣..基于PSR模型的凌河口湿地生态系统健康评价与预警研究[J].生态学报,2017,37(24):8264-8274,11.基金项目
辽宁省科学事业公益研究基金项目(2015003006) （2015003006）
辽宁省教育厅研究项目(L20142508) （L20142508）
