生态学报2017，Vol.37Issue(24)：8411-8421,11.DOI:10.5846/stxb201612042489
鄱阳湖生态经济区生态系统服务价值预测与驱动力
Ecosystem services value prediction and driving forces in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone
摘要
Abstract
The Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone is China's first ecological economic zone raised to the national strategy.Based on the MODIS data of 2004,2008,2012,and 2016 for the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone,the land use/cover of the four corresponding periods were obtained.Ecosystem services value data for 2-year intervals from 2016 to 2024 were predicted according to the revised table of ecosystem services equivalent values per unit area and the grey GM (1,1) model.The driving forces for the change in ecosystem services values were analyzed.The results revealed that from 2004 to 2016,the area of grassland,construction land and unused land increased;the outcome of arable land,forest land and water area turned out to be opposite.While with the ecosystem services value predictive change rate being only-0.17％ from 2016 and 2024,it indicated that the regional ecosystem services value would be relatively stable.With reference to the analysis of driving forces,we found that human activities interference remained moderate level in spatial distribution.The urbanization rate was the first driving force that decreased regional total ecosystem services values,followed by the non-agricultural population,population density,the primary industry GDP,the secondary industry GDP,fixed assets investment,total GDP,and the tertiary industry GDP.Strengthening on land use planning and regulation,the expansion of urban construction land control,the industrial structure adjustment,and pollution reduction will promote the improvement in total ecosystem services values of the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone.关键词
生态系统服务价值/土地利用结构/灰色预测模型/驱动力/鄱阳湖生态经济区Key words
ecosystem services value/land use structure/gray forecast model/driving force/Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone引用本文复制引用
赵志刚,余德,韩成云,王凯荣..鄱阳湖生态经济区生态系统服务价值预测与驱动力[J].生态学报,2017,37(24):8411-8421,11.基金项目
江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(JC1452) （JC1452）
江西省普通高校中青年教师发展计划(2013年国内访问学者项目) （2013年国内访问学者项目）
