水资源与水工程学报2017，Vol.28Issue(6)：50-55,6.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2017.06.09
1961-2016年南宁市年降雨量变化特征分析
Analysis of characteristics of annual precipitation in Nanning during 1961-2016
摘要
Abstract
In this paper,the annual precipitation changing trend during 1961-2016 in Nanning was ana-lyzed by using the linear tendency,anomaly percent,moving average curve,cumulative filter method,Ken-dall test method and R/S which are commonly used in hydrological sequence. In addition,Mann-Ken-dall and Morlet wavelet analysis method was adopted to test the mutability and periodicity of the se-quence. The results show that from 1961 to 2016,Nanning annual precipitation roughly shows an upward trend,but not obvious, and it is very likely that rainfall will continue to increase in the next few years. In the recent 10 years, the annual rainfall series have changed frequently, which may be attributed to the global climate change. The annual precipitation sequence show the 13a-period,but there may be a lar-ger period,though it is not shown. The 1961-2016 annual rainfall sequence is approximately 13 years and may potentially exceed the 30-year cycle, but can not be visualized due to sequence length limita-tions.关键词
水文序列/降雨量/趋势分析/突变分析/周期分析/南宁市Key words
hydrological sequence/precipitation/change trend/mutation analysis/cycle analysis/Nan-ning city分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杜懿,麻荣永..1961-2016年南宁市年降雨量变化特征分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(6):50-55,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51369005) （51369005）
广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室系统性研究项目(2013ZDX04) （2013ZDX04）
