中国电力2017，Vol.50Issue(12)：10-15,6.DOI:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201708233
经济新常态下江苏省电力需求分析研究
Analysis on the Electric Power Demand of Jiangsu Province Under China's New Normal
摘要
Abstract
Under China's new normal,the driving factors for Jiangsu Province's economic growth have shifted from the secondary industry to the tertiary industry and consumption.Jiangsu Province's power demand has also undergone significant changes.In order to accurately predict the new trend of electricity demand of Jiangsu Province,this paper analyzes the power consumption characteristics of Jiangsu Province since the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-2015),which is mainly manifested in the declining trend of power elasticity coefficient and the significant difference in power consumption growth among three typical regions in southern,middle and northern Jiangsu Province.The electricity consumption of the southern and middle regions shows a high growth rate,while the northern region has a low growth rate.A forecasting is made on the electricity demand of Jiangsu Province under China's new normal.It is predicted that the total electricity consumption growth rate of Jiangsu Province will be about 5.1％ during the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-2020),and the southern,middle and northern regions will have an electricity consumption growth rate of 5.7％,6.2％ and 2.9％,respectively.关键词
经济/新常态/电力需求/弹性系数/产业结构Key words
economy/new normal/electricity demand/elasticity coefficient/industrial structure分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
史静,周琪,谈健,朱磊..经济新常态下江苏省电力需求分析研究[J].中国电力,2017,50(12):10-15,6.基金项目
国网江苏省电力公司科技项目(SGJSJY00GHJS1500080)This work is supported by the Science and Technology Project of State Grid Jiangsu Power Company (No.SGJSJY00GHJS1500080). （SGJSJY00GHJS1500080）
