中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(11)：31-38,8.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170611
“全面二孩”、人口年龄结构变动对住房消费的影响
'Universal two-child', the effect of demographic structure change on housing consumption
摘要
Abstract
Currently,Chinese population structure has been changing,the weaknesses of low birth rate and aging problem come out gradually.' Universal two-child'policy is an important step to adjust and perfect the childbearing policy,which will have revolutionary consequences.At the moment of the government publishing the policy of ' universal two child',it has practical significance to explore the change of population structure brought by the policy and the effect of demographic change to Chinese housing consumption.Through coordinating and comparing the data of the sixth national census and China Statistical Yearbook from 2001 to 2016,the result shows that the implementation of 'universal two child'will raise the children'dependency ratio significantly,and it also alleviate the aging process to a certain extent.It's a pity that it can not change the tendency of aging population.We use lagged variable and dynamic panel spacing estimation method (GMM) to estimate the effect of population age structure to housing consume.The estimation results dedicate that the factor of population age structure can not explain the rise of Chinese house price,but it can explain the change of housing area partially.The increasing of children'dependency ratio will lower the level of housing area significantly,but the old-age dependency ratio has no significant effect on the level of housing area.The implementation of ' universal two-child'policy will raise the children'dependency ratio,so it will lower the housing consumption in a long trend.From the view of population age structure,there is no demand basis of rapid growth on Chinese house price in the future.The government should take action actively to avoid the adverse effect of weak housing market on economic development.In recent years,the government has realized the importance of stimulating domestic demand,so we can complete the endowment insurance system,increase spending power of the old age,and transfer commodity service structure to the old market and strive to develop the high and new technology industry to cope with the crisis of aging to economic market.关键词
“全面二孩”/少儿抚养比/老年抚养比/住房消费/住房价格Key words
'universal two-child'/children' dependency ratio/old-age dependency ratio/housing price/housing consumption分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
顾和军,周小跃,张晨怡..“全面二孩”、人口年龄结构变动对住房消费的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(11):31-38,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目“女性劳动参与、生育行为选择与人口红利:效应测度与政策含义”(批准号:71473128) （批准号:71473128）
国家社会科学基金项目“生育政策调整、住户规模效应与中国家庭收入不平等研究”(批准号:16BJL041) （批准号:16BJL041）
博士后特别资助项目“女性劳动参与、生育行为选择与经济增长”(批准号:2016T90435). （批准号:2016T90435）
