中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(11)：39-51,13.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170521
人口老龄化对人力资本投资的“倒U”影响效应——理论机制与中日韩比较研究
The impact of 'inverted U'of population aging on the human capital investment:theoretical mechanism and comparative study of China, Japan and Korea
摘要
Abstract
China,Japan and South Korea are the typical population aging countries in East Asia,with the highest aging degree in Japan,the fastest aging in Korea and the largest aging population scale in China.Population aging has had a significant impact on the human capital investment in these three countries.In the paper,the entity fixed effect model was used to study panel data in China,Japan and South Korea in 1971-2013.By analyzing the relationship between the aging population and investment in human capital,as well as influence degree of the aging population in various counties on investment in human capital,it could be observed that fitting figures of three countries presented ' inverted U'.In other words,the aging population first had a positive influence on investment in human capital and then had a negative influence on investment in human capital.The critical point of transition was about 10％.After stepping over the critical point,the reduction of investment in human capital would speed up with the development of the aging level.When it reached about 30％,investment in human capital would be reduced by 1％ by improving 1％ of the aging level.Meanwhile,due to differences of public education expenditure scale,expenditure structure and regional distribution in three countries,China,South Korea and Japan kept in the ascent stage,stable stage and declining stage of ' inverted U',respectively.The aging population in Japan and South Korea presented ' inverted U'in public education expenditure,showing that public resources had intergeneration competition.In order to relieve crowding-out effects of the aging population on public expenditure,both countries have taken lots of measures to relieve negative effects of the aging population and they have formed the perfect policy system for many years.Both countries have abundant experience in coping with the aging population,but they also should learn from it.Influences of the aging population in both countries on investment in human capital predict the possible development tendency in China.China should learn from experience in Japan and South Korean,control rapid development of the aging population,construct the perfect legal protection system for the elderly,maintain rights and benefits for the elderly,coordinate public resource distribution,and improve educational investment structure.In addition,China also should enlarge investnent in human capital,cope with possible changes of investment in human capital caused by the aging population,and realize sustainable economic development.关键词
人口老龄化/人力资本投资/个体固定效应模型/倒U型Key words
population aging/human capital investment/individual fixed effect model/inverted ‘U'分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
刘文,张琪..人口老龄化对人力资本投资的“倒U”影响效应——理论机制与中日韩比较研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(11):39-51,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目“老龄化条件下家庭人力资本投资的代际合作与竞争关系研究”(批准号:71573158) （批准号:71573158）
教育部人文社科规划课题“中日韩人口老龄化与经济增长方式转型比较研究”(批准号:13YJAZH056). （批准号:13YJAZH056）
