中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(11)：124-131,8.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170440
生态安全约束下耕地潜在转换及其对粮食生产的影响——以东北地区为例
Impact of farmland conversion grain output under the ecological constraint: based in the Northeast of China
摘要
Abstract
The excessive exploitation and utilization of farmland in the Northeast of China has had a negative impact on the ecological environment in the region for a long time,which pose a real threaten to the regional stable production ability of farmland,so studying the degree of stability of farmland area and its impact on grain output is very important.Based on ecological constraints from multisource causes,this paper investigates unstable farmland area that under the ecological security constraint and spatial distribution in Northeast of China.Then this paper systematically assesses the impact of potential unstable farmland conversion on grain output under the ecological security scenario,synthetic tradeoff scenario and food security scenario.The results show that there are 4 275 123.77 hm2 unstable farmland under the ecological security constraint in Northeast of China.In the scenario of ecological security,4 275 123.72 hm2 unstable farmland in Northeast of China should be converted into other kinds of land use which accounts for 13.79％ of total regional unstable farmland area.In the scenarios of synthetic tradeoff and food security,3 879 734.23 hm2 and 395 389.49 hm2 unstable farmland will convert into other kinds of land use which account for 12.52％ and 1.28％ of total regional unstable farmland area respectively.Due to unstable farmland conversion,the total grain outputs in Northeast of China decrease by 12.62％,11.73％ and 6.90％ respectively in three different scenarios.So it is necessary for Northeast of China to deal with the relationship between farmland protection,ecological red line and food security to realize the sustainable utilization of farmland land resources,from the dimensions of quantity,quality and ecology reinforces the farmland protection,to promote the sustainable development of farmland resource.关键词
土地管理/不稳定耕地/生态安全/耕地转换/粮食生产/东北地区Key words
land management/unstable farmland/ecological security/farmland conversion/grain output/Northeast of China分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
赵爱栋,彭冲,许实,曾薇,马贤磊..生态安全约束下耕地潜在转换及其对粮食生产的影响——以东北地区为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(11):124-131,8.基金项目
中国土地规划勘测院外协项目“二次调查不稳定耕地综合分析任务”(批准号:20130517) （批准号:20130517）
国家自然科学基金项目“农地流转模式、流转契约与农业规模经营模式组合:驱动力、绩效与机制设计”(批准号:71373127) （批准号:71373127）
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目“非正式制度视角下农地产权安全与投资激励:作用机理及政策干预机制设计”(批准号:71603121)、“城市产业空间结构对土地利用效率的影响机制研究”(批准号:41601115). （批准号:71603121）
