中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(11)：176-184,9.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170443
流域内经济结构性调整对水环境质量的长短期效应分析
Analysis of short and long-term effect of economic structural adjustment on water environment in the basin
摘要
Abstract
With the further development of industrialization and urbanization in the basin,water environment in the river basin turns to be worse.Taihu basin is one of the areas with fastest social and economic development in China,and its water quality gets worse.In order to achieve the coordinated development between economy,society and environment in the basin,this paper determines the comprehensive pollution index of water quality in Taihu basin based on the principal component analysis method.And then it analyzes the short and long-term effect of economic structural adjustment on water environnent in the basin,using the data of Jiangsu's industrial structure adjustment,population structure between urban and rural areas and government environmental regulation from 1991 to 2014 based on ARDL bounds test approach.The empirical results show that the short-term elasticity and long-term elasticity of the industrial structure adjustment to the water environment quality are-179.283 and 79.522 respectively,which indicates that secondary industry will deteriorate water quality in the long term,and its imquence does not automatically fade over times.The short-term elasticity and long-term elasticity of urban and rural structural changes to water environment quality are 309.411 and 67.578 respectively,which means that the flow of population from rural to urban areas will increase water consumption in the short-term,and it will result in water quality deterioration,but its negative impact will be weakened in the long-term.The short-term elasticity and long-term elasticity of government regulation behavior are 19.687 and-21.705 respectively,indicating that it will not improve the water quality effectively in the short term and often needs to wait for several years to get preliminary results.And compared to the effect of industrial and population structure on the water quality,its impact is slightly insufficient.Finally,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions based on the empirical analysis:optimizing the primary industry and developing the tertiary industry vigorously to promote the optimization of industrial structure;increasing the propaganda of environmental protection,popularizing water conservation awareness,controlling the sewage discharge behavior,and fostering agricultural development to achieve a reasonable population flow from rural to urban areas;promoting the development of some high-tech sewage equipment and increasing continuously government investment in sewage treatment to strengthen the government's environmental regulatory behavior.关键词
产业结构调整/人口城乡结构/政府环境规制/主成份分析/边限协整检验Key words
industrial structure adjustment/population structure between urban and rural areas/government environmental regulation/principal component analysis/ARDL bounds test approach分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
方琳,吴凤平,张庆海..流域内经济结构性调整对水环境质量的长短期效应分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(11):176-184,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目“最严格水资源管理制度约束下流域初始水权耦合配置方法研究”(批准号:41271537) （批准号:41271537）
江苏省研究生创新计划项目“太潮流域经济结构性调整对水环境质量的影响研究”(批准号:2016B46714). （批准号:2016B46714）
