中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(11)：209-214,6.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170516
用水总量控制下行业配水权重不完全信息动态博弈
Dynamic game analysis on weights of water allocation among water use sectors under constrained total water use at a basin scale
摘要
Abstract
Reasonable distribution of water resources is a basis for its sustainable utilization.Weight of each industry is one of the key points for water allocation.Game theory studies the most reasonable action plans between the parties with conflict interests with the help of a rigorous nathematical model and becomes an effective tool to find the most reasonable action plan.Based on dynamic game theory of incomplete information,this paper studied the way of determining the optimal solution and game process of industrial weights of water allocation in the Dongjiang River Basin,and introduced the incentive and punishment mechanism according to constrained total water use policy into the constructed game theory model of industrial weights of water allocation,to improve the operability of water distribution scheme.The results show that:First,the first-order condition for the optimal goal of industrial weights of water allocation is comprehensively determined by available water resources amount,ecological water consumption of channel,industrial water demands,and indices of water use efficiency.Second,backward induction was used to solve the industrial weights of initial water allocation based on the Game theory model,and the water allocation weights of livelihood,industry,agriculture,and urban ecological environment were 0.72,0.71,0.69 and 0.46 respectively;correspondingly,the water allocation amounts were 2.02,2.86,3.36 and 0.21 billion m3 respectively in an extremely dry year,which showed the water allocation priority for each water use sector.Third,the key of game of industrial weights of water allocation was the specific of incentives and penalties under the constrained total water use quota.Industrial water use was forced to undergo a repeated game within the total constrained water use quota under the incentive and punishment mechanism,which helped to save water,improve water use efficiency and finally achieve the individual and group rationality.The research results could contribute to tbe effective implementation of the strictest water resources management system and provide scientific decision-making basis for industrial water allocation under the changing environment.关键词
配水权重/动态博弈/总量控制/东江流域Key words
industrial weights of water allocation/dynamic game/constrained total water use/Dongjiang River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
何艳虎,陈晓宏,林凯荣,于海霞,吴孝情,胡志发..用水总量控制下行业配水权重不完全信息动态博弈[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(11):209-214,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年项目“受用水总量约束的水资源优化配置二层合作博弈模式和方法”(批准号:51509127) （批准号:51509127）
国家自然科学基金项目“变化环境下西南河流源区来水-供水-发电-环境互馈博弈自适应协同调控”(批准号:91547202) （批准号:91547202）
国家自然科学基金重大国际合作项目“变化环境下基于水联网和用水总量控制的水资源配置报童模式和方法”(批准号:51210013) （批准号:51210013）
国家自然科学基金青年项目“变化环境下水资源脆弱性与适应性管理机制”(批准号:41301627). （批准号:41301627）
