地质科技情报2017，Vol.36Issue(4)：260-265,270,7.DOI:10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2017.0435
库水位下降及降雨作用下麻柳林滑坡稳定性评价与预测
Stability Evaluation and Prediction of Maliulin Landslide under Reservoir Water Level Decline and Rainfall
摘要
Abstract
It is of great significance to research stability change characteristics of debris landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir region under the effect of reservoir water level fluctuation and rainfall and predict the stability.Geological model of Maliulin landslide was established in Wanzhou District of Three Gorges Reservoir region,and 12 work conditions were set after the analysis of repetition period of rainfall on the basis of P-Ⅲ distribution curve.Simulation of landslide stability was carried out by using Geostudio software.The results indicate that the reservoir water level declines and rainfall infiltration decreases.The stability coefficient of landslide and amplitude of variation has a positive correlation with both rate of declining of reservoir water level and rainfall intensity.The response of the stability to the rainfall is more sensitive.The stability coefficient is 0.95 and 0.949 in the two most negative work conditions with instability and failure of landslide.The gray model was used to carry out rolling forecast of the stability coefficient of landslide on the most negative work condition.The MAPE is 2.86％ and MSE is 0.033.The accuracy of gray model is better than that of the polynomial model.关键词
库水位下降/降雨/滑坡稳定性/灰色模型/预测Key words
reservoir water level decline/rainfall/landslide stability/gray model/prediction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
郭子正,殷坤龙,唐扬,黄发明,付小林..库水位下降及降雨作用下麻柳林滑坡稳定性评价与预测[J].地质科技情报,2017,36(4):260-265,270,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41572292) （41572292）
中国地质调查局项目(0431203) （0431203）
