湖泊科学2017，Vol.29Issue(6)：1528-1537,10.DOI:10.18307/2017.0625
大别山库区降水预报性能评估及应用对策
Evaluation of precipitation forecasts for Dabie Mountain area and application countermeasures for the reservoirs regulation
摘要
Abstract
The evaluation and application research of precipitation forecasts for reservoirs area can help to optimize the reservoir regulation.Based on the precipitation forecasts with 7 lead time(24-168 h) and the observation precipitation data in the flood season during 2007-2016,evaluation methods (e.g.Percentage Correct,Threat Score,Probability Statistics,ROC curve,CTS) were introduced to estimate the precipitation prediction skill,and the application countermeasures for the reservoir regulation in Xianghongdian Reservoir of Dabie Mountain area were analyzed.The results indicate that:1) The precipitation forecasting skills for all precipitation magnitudes are all positive in the Dabie Mountains reservoir area.The precipitation forecast performance of 24-72 h lead time in the Dabie Mountains reservoir area is the best,and the TS score is relatively high and false alarm rate and missing forecast rate are also relatively low.However,the forecasting performance of 96 h lead time and above is obviously decreased,the false alarm rate and missing forecast rate are getting higher for moderate rain,especially for heavy rain.2) Overall,even though the rainfall scale predictions are generally consistent with the observations,the probability of precipitation forecast greater than or equal to the observation is more than 75％.Although it is inclined to the over forecast the precipitation scale,the precipitation forecast products still havea good application value.However,precipitation scale forecast deviation must be considered during application.3) Compared to the forecasts with long lead time which have great uncertainty,forecasts with short lead time are more reliable and have better performance in heavy precipitation processes and transition weather.The CTS scores of 96 h lead time and above are relatively low,but the forecasting performance is improved significantly within 72 h lead time.Especially,the CTS scores of 24 h lead time increases to 38.2％.In practical application,the combination of precipitation forecasts with different forecast periods,including the latest forecasts,are strongly suggested to get the information of transition weather.Such a forecast combination can be utilized to adjust the reservoirs regulation timely when the transition weather is approaching.Our statistic results have justified the usability of precipitation forecast,and the research results could be a valuable reference for the reservoir regulation decision making.关键词
大别山库区/降水预报/性能评估/水库调度/应用对策/响洪甸水库Key words
Dabie Mountain area/precipitation forecast/performance evaluation/reservoir regulation/application countermeasures/Xianghongdian Reservoir引用本文复制引用
叶金印,张锦堂,黄勇,安晶晶,叶正阳..大别山库区降水预报性能评估及应用对策[J].湖泊科学,2017,29(6):1528-1537,10.基金项目
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406021)资助. （气象）
