湖泊科学2018，Vol.30Issue(1)：44-56,13.DOI:10.18307/2018.0105
基于农户个体行为的珠江流域氮、磷营养盐控制政策情景分析
Policies scenario analysis based on the farmers' individual behavior for nitrogen and phosphorous nutrient controlling of Pearl River Basin
摘要
Abstract
To reveal the logical relationship between farmers' individual behavior and the generation and control policies of agricultural non-point source nutrient in watershed,scenario analysis approaches in watershed nutrient control policies are established based on coupling System Dynamic model with Multi-agent Agricultural household model for Rural Environmental Management model.This research took Pear River Basin as the research object.This study designs four future scenarios:business-as-usual scenario,low fertilizer fax rate scenario,middle fertilizer fax rate scenario and high fertilizer fax rate scenario,simultaneously with the same pesticide tax rate of 25％ for latter three policy scenarios.Under various scenarios,the response of watershed nutrient to agricultural policies is quantitatively described and optimal policy for controlling watershed nutrient is assessed.The results indicate that in low fertilizer fax rate scenario,middle fertilizer fax rate scenario and high fertilizer fax rate scenario for 2030,the quantity of synthetic fertilizer applied will be 24.0％,39.8％ and 50.2％ less than that of in business-as-usual scenario,respectively;the quantity of pesticide applied will be 27.6％,32.8％ and 37.4％ less than that of in business-as-usual scenario,respectively;crop yield will be 10.0％,16.3％ and 21.2％ less than that of in business-as-usual scenario,respectively;the number of livestock will be 5.9％,7.5％ and 14.0％ higher than that of ia business-as-usual scenario,respectively.In business-as-usual scenario,low fertilizer fax rate scenario,middle fertilizer fax rate scenario and high fertilizer fax rate scenario for 2030,the total nitrogen input to Pearl River Basin will be 9.45× 105,8.51× 105,7.85× 105 and 7.53× 105 t,respectively;the total phosphorus input to Pearl River Basin will be 1.40× 105,1.28× 105,1.20× 105 and 1.16× 10s t.The combination of fertilizer tax rate and pesticide tax rate can effectively reduce the discharge of nutrient.Even though middle fertilizer fax rate scenario and high fertilizer fax rate scenario have greater control effects,they have marginal effect,higher economic cost,less crop production and more animal manure pollution compared to low fertilizer fax rate scenario.Therefore,the policy option carried out in low fertilizer fax rate scenario is considered to be optimal for controlling Pearl River's nutrient pollution.关键词
珠江流域/营养盐/税收政策/农业面源/营养盐控制/化肥/总氮/总磷Key words
Pearl River Basin/nutrient/fax policy/agricultural non-point source/nutrient control/fertilizers/total nitrogen/total phosphorus引用本文复制引用
徐鹏,林永红,郑君倢,杨顺顺,栾胜基..基于农户个体行为的珠江流域氮、磷营养盐控制政策情景分析[J].湖泊科学,2018,30(1):44-56,13.基金项目
国际科技合作专项(2012DFG92020)、湖南省哲学社会科学基金项目(13YBB139)和湖南省自然科学基金项目(2015JJ3083)联合资助. （2012DFG92020）
