气象2017，Vol.43Issue(4)：385-401,17.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.04.001
GRAPES-REPS西南低涡预报检验评估
Verification and Evaluation of the Southwest Vortex Forecast by GRAPES-REPS
摘要
Abstract
The data of Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Regional Ensemble Prediction System (GRAPES-REPS) from June to August 2015 are used and an objective method based on grid data is designed for locating the center position of the southwest vortex.Firstly,the accuracy of GRAPES to the southwest vortex is tested,then 4 long-life southwest vortexes are picked to evaluate the ensemble forecasting performance of GRAPES-REPS in the generating,developing,moving and precipitation process of southwest vortex.The results show that:(1) accuracy of GRAPES to the southwest vortex keeps a high score,and the false rate is slightly larger than the missing rate.(2) GRAPES-REPS performs well in forecasting generation and development of the southwest vortex.Most ensemble members can predict these processes,but the occurring time is earlier than observation.(3) The forecasted moving path for southwest vortex by GRAPES-REPS in 24 h is reasonable,the ensemble forecast is averagely much better than control member,and the path goes to north after 24 h in the eastward moving cases.(4) The forecast of the intensity of the southwest vortex is too strong,with higher value of center positive vorticity and lower value of geopotential height.(5) In 24 h forecast,the rain score for light rain to heavy rain triggered by the southwest vortex performs well,and the rainfall area matches the observation very well,while area for torrential rain lies slightly north in some cases,but mostly is reasonable.After 24 h,since the pathway of the eastward moving southwest vortexes is by north,the prediction of strong rainfall area follows the same trend.It can be seen that the system has the ability to forecast precipitation caused by the southwest vortex.So,improving the capability of mesoscale ensemble forecast by GRAPES-REPS would be helpful for the prediction of precipitation caused by the southwest vortex.关键词
GRAPES-REPS/西南低涡/集合预报/路径预报/检验Key words
GRAPES-REPS (Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Regional Ensemble Prediction System)/the southwest vortex/ensemble forecast/pathway forecasting/verification分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王静,陈静,钟有亮,张进,李晓莉..GRAPES-REPS西南低涡预报检验评估[J].气象,2017,43(4):385-401,17.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(91437113和41475044)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506005和GYHY201006015)、国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAC03B01)共同资助 （91437113和41475044）
