气象2017，Vol.43Issue(4)：402-412,11.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.04.002
一种多时间尺度SVM局部短时临近降雨预测方法
A Multi-Time Scales SVM Method for Local Short-Term Rainfall Prediction
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,SVM (support vector machine) has been widely used in meteorological field.Single modeling is the most common approach for this type of application which just looks for a large,generic prediction mode to forecast surface rainfall.In this study,individual meteorological stations were modeled dynamically through multi-time scale SVM.So we established a dynamic short-term rainfall forecasting model and fully considered the difference of meteorological elements at different time stamps of different sites,solving the problem that the single fixed global model is concerned with the whole law too much and neglects the difficiency of local meteorological changes at different sites and different times.Therefore,our method has the ability of improving the accuracy of short-term precipitation forecast.In our study,the prediction for higher density and finer rainfall in geographical space was basically achieved,the temporal resolution was 1 h,and the TS score was always kept at a high level.As a result,the average TS score of 1 h forecast is more than 40 ％,and for some sites,it is close to 50 ％.Thus,the prediction accuracy of the model has certain stability and reference value.关键词
短时临近降雨预测/支持向量机/时间尺度/TS检验Key words
short-term rainfall prediction/support vector machine(SVM)/time scales/TS score分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
贺佳佳,陈凯,陈劲松,徐文文,唐历,刘军..一种多时间尺度SVM局部短时临近降雨预测方法[J].气象,2017,43(4):402-412,11.基金项目
深圳南方强天气研究重点实验室项目(ZDSYS20140715153957030和SZQX2015113)及广东省科技厅项目(2014A020218014)共同资助 （ZDSYS20140715153957030和SZQX2015113）
