气象2017，Vol.43Issue(4)：434-442,9.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.04.005
JMA/MRI-CPS2模式对东亚夏季风系统预测能力的评估
Evaluation on East Asia Summer Monsoon System Prediction by JMA/MRI-CPS2 Model
摘要
Abstract
Based on hindeast data of the a new version of JMA/MRI-CPS2 climate prediction model supplied by Tokyo Climate Centre,the skill of predicting East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is evaluated by use of several estimating methods.The results show that some features of EASM can be predicted,including the climatical distribution of the main precipitation centers and the main members of EASM system,but with some systematic biases.Taylor diagram analysis shows the JMA/MRI-CPS2 model has decent skills in predicting the monsoon indices,as well as the area,intensity and western ridge point of subtropical high.However,for the south-north position index of the ridge line,its prediction result is poor.Reviewed monthly,the results issued in April and May are better.The spatial distribution of the main modes of MV-EOF analyses on EASM are also presented.Similar to the observation,the first mode in hindeast shows the influence of attenuating El Ni(n)o and the second one shows the influence of developing El Ni(n)o.The composite analysis reflects the different responses of EASM circulation to the different phases of El Ni(n)o in developing and decaying years.All of the analyses indicate the model's high predicting skills in EASM region,which could be used as a reference in climate prediction for the flood season every year.关键词
模式评估/夏季风/JMA/MRI-CPS2/东亚Key words
model evaluation/summer monsoon/JMA/MRI-CPS2/East Asia分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
程智,杨玮,徐敏,周昆..JMA/MRI-CPS2模式对东亚夏季风系统预测能力的评估[J].气象,2017,43(4):434-442,9.基金项目
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406021)和安徽省自然科学基金项目(1408085MD73)共同资助 （气象）
