气象学报2017，Vol.75Issue(6)：903-916,14.DOI:10.11676/qxxb2017.066
基于青藏高原春季感热异常信号的中国东部夏季降水统计预测模型
A statistical forecast model for summer precipitation in eastern China based on spring sensible heat anomaly in the Tibetan Plateau
摘要
Abstract
Based on station observations and high resolution gridded precipitation data,the relationship between spring sensible heat in the Tibetan Plateau (STPSH) and summer precipitation in eastern China (SPEC) is investigated in terms of decadal change and interannual variability by using the maximum covariance analysis.Further attempt has been made to establish a statistical model for forecasting the SPEC using the timescale decomposed regression approach.Results indicate that for the decadal component,a significant correlation exists between the STPSH and SPEC in most part of eastern China in June,July and August with the explained variance fractions of 75.6％,99.9％ and 79.7％,respectively.For the interannual component,however,the significantly correlated regions are distributed in southern China,the coastal area of northern China,and the Yangtze-Huai River valley in June;in July,the correlated areas are located over the southwestern part of South China,the Yangtze River valley,the southeastern part of Northeast China and the middle-lower reaches of Yellow River;high correlation is found over Northeast China and the western part of South China in August.The explained variance fractions are 42.7％,43.4％ and 32.0％,respectively.The explained variance analysis and the hindcast examination suggest that the best prediction skill of this model occurs in most part of eastern China in July.The areas with high predictability are the southern region of the Yangtze River in June,and northeastern China and western part of South China in August.The model can reasonably describe the relation between the STPSH and SPEC and quantitatively forecast local precipitation in June,July and August.Therefore this model might be used for short-term operational climate prediction.关键词
青藏高原春季感热/中国东部夏季降水/统计预测/最大协方差分析Key words
Spring Tibetan Plateau sensible heat/Precipitation in eastern China/Statistical forecast/Maximum covariance analysis分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘森峰,段安民..基于青藏高原春季感热异常信号的中国东部夏季降水统计预测模型[J].气象学报,2017,75(6):903-916,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(91337216、91637312)、CAS项目(XDA11010402)、中国财政部和科技部公益性行业(气象)专项(GYHY201406001)、NSFC-广东联合基金(第二期)超级计算科学应用研究专项及国家超级计算广州中心支持. （91337216、91637312）
