水利水电技术2017，Vol.48Issue(12)：14-21,40,9.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2017.12.003
中等排放情景下中国未来不同强度降雨变化及其对总降雨贡献的预估(2006-2100年)
Pre-estimation on variations of rainfalls with different intensities and their contributions to total rainfall under emission scenarios in China from 2006 to 2100
摘要
Abstract
In order to explore the rainfalls with different intensities in various regions and all over China as well as the variation trends of their contributions to the total rainfall,a study is made with the WRF 30 km × 30 km daily precipitation data from 2006 to 2100 under RCP6.0 emission scenarios in accordance with the classification standard of precipitation intensity issued by China Meteorological Administration.The result shows that (1) In the aspect of rainfall,light rains under RCP6.0 emission scenarios from 2006 to 2100 in China are decreased along with the increases of heavy rains.For the contribution rate,the contribution rates of light rain and moderate rain to the total rainfall present the trends of decrease,while the contributions of the other five kinds of heavy rain to the total rainfall are increased,which indicates that heavy rains are increased along with rainfall being developed towards to an extreme direction.The contribution rate of rainstorm to the total storm rainfall presents a trend of increase,while the contributions of heavy rainstorm and super rainstorm to the total storm rainfall show the trends of decrease,thus the increase of rainstorm plays a key role on the increase of the contribution rate of the total storm rainfall to the total rainfall.(2) In the aspect of different regions,all the rainfalls with different intensities in the North China,Northeast China and Tibet region present the trends of increase;all the other kinds of rains in regions of the Southeast China and Southwest China present the trends of increase except light rain;only light rain,moderate rain and the total rainfall in the region of the west of the Northwest China present the trends of increase;only light rain in the region of the east of the Northwest China presents the trend of increase and only light rain and moderate rain in the region of the west of the Northwest China present the trends of increase.(3) In the aspect of the contributions of the rainstorms with different intensities to the total storm rainfall,except that the variation trend in the west of the Northwest China is not so significant,the contributions of super rainstorms within all the seven main.regions present the trends of increase with various degrees.The result obtained herein can provide a reference for the similar studies.关键词
RCP6.0/WRF模式/动力降尺度/降雨预估/降雨等级/降雨贡献率/区域差异/全球气候变化Key words
RCP6.0/WRF mode/dynamical downscaling/pre-estimation of rainfall/rainfall grade/rainfall contribution rate/regional differences/global climate change分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
孔锋,王一飞,方建,吕丽莉..中等排放情景下中国未来不同强度降雨变化及其对总降雨贡献的预估(2006-2100年)[J].水利水电技术,2017,48(12):14-21,40,9.基金项目
中亚大气科学研究基金“中亚地区暴雨时空变化及其影响因素诊断”(CAAS201804) （CAAS201804）
国家自然科学基金面上项目“北京城市热岛效应与强降水事件的关系研究”(41775078) （41775078）
气象软科学自主项目“新常态下中国自然灾害风险时空格局和综合防灾减灾工作的现状、趋势、挑战及战略对策范式研究”(2017[36]) （2017[36]）
