中山大学学报（自然科学版）2018，Vol.57Issue(1)：130-135,6.DOI:10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2018.01.017
洪水峰量联合分布的4种重现水平对比
Comparative analysis on four recurrence levels of joint distribution of flood peak discharge and volume
摘要
Abstract
This article comparatively analyzed the four designed flood recurrence levels of bivariate flood joint distribution of flood peak discharges and flood volumes by using Archimedean copulas function, Kendall distribution function and survival Kendall distribution function.The annual maximum flood peak discharges and the corresponding flood volumes of Qilinzui hydrometric station at Zengjiang River as an example,the 'OR' primary return periods,'AND' primary return periods,Kendall return periods and survival Kendall return periods of bivariate flood joint distribution and the most likely design flood quan -tiles were computed by using the optimally fitted Gumbel-Hougaard copula.The main conclusions of this study can be summarized as follows:comparing the different specific flood return periods,the Kendall re-turn periods can be more accurately reflect the flood risks relative to 'OR' primary return periods;while the survival Kendall return period can be more accurately reflect the flood risks when two variables for flood were supercritical at the same time with respect to 'AND' primary return periods.The univariate flood design value has reached safety standards according to the relevant specifications of the current de -sign requirements.The estimated flood design quantiles of the 'OR' primary return periods and two vari-ables with the same frequency were obviously higher than the single variable floods.The most-likely de-sign realizations of the Kendall return periods and the survival Kendall return periods can serve as a new selection for flood control projects safety and risk management.关键词
洪水风险评估/"或"重现期/"且"重现期/Kendall重现期/生存Kendall重现期Key words
flood risk assessment/'OR' return period/'AND' return period/Kendall return period/survival Kendall return period分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
陈子燊,刘占明,赵青..洪水峰量联合分布的4种重现水平对比[J].中山大学学报（自然科学版）,2018,57(1):130-135,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(41371498) （41371498）
