川北医学院学报2017，Vol.32Issue(6)：871-873,889,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-3697.2017.06.018
应用人工神经网络建立老年肺癌患者化疗期间发生感染的预测模型
Application of artificial neural network in establishing predictive models with infection during chemotherapy for hospitalized elderly patients with lung cancer
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To establish predictive models with infection during chemotherapy for hospitalized elderly patients (＞ 65years old) with lung cancer and then evaluate the predictive capacity of the models,so as to explore methods to predicate the disease onset risks in individuals.Methods:A total of 327 elderly patients with lung cancer admitted in our hospital for chemotherapy were collected retrospectively,and divided into training group (n =260) and detection group (n =67) by ratio of 4 ∶ 1 to screen variables,establish predictive models,and detect and evaluate those models.Logistic Regression (LR) models were used to conduct multivariate screening to the data,and screened indexes with statistical significance were used to establish LR models and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models.Receiver Operator Characteristic CUI-Ve (ROC) was used to evaluate the prediction performance of these models.Results:The occurrence rate of nosocomial infection was 21.10％ (69/327),and further analysis indicated that myelosuppression (≥ degree Ⅱ,P =0.001),long length of hospital stay (≥ 14 days,P =0.001),diabetes (P =0.005),combination with chemotherapy (containing cisplatin,P =0.009),history of surgery for lung cancer (P =0.033) and application of hormones (P =0.025) were risk factors for the occurrence of infection during chemotherapy for elderly patients with lung cancer.The two models were used to predict the 67 validation sets,with rates of accurate prediction being 87.15％ and 79.81％,respectively.ROC area under the curve (AUC) was used to compare the prediction capacity of the models,and the results showed that the AUC of LR models was (0.757 ± 0.036),smaller than the (0.905 ± 0.017) of ANN models.Conclusion:ANN models have better prediction performance than LR models in predic ting the occurrence of infection during chemotherapy for elderly patients with lung cancer.关键词
人工智能神经网络/感染/老年患者/肺癌化疗Key words
Artificial Neural Network/Infection/Elderly patients/Chemotherapy for lung cancer分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
王晓辉,潘雁,朱珺..应用人工神经网络建立老年肺癌患者化疗期间发生感染的预测模型[J].川北医学院学报,2017,32(6):871-873,889,4.基金项目
上海市胸科医院科技发展基金(YZ14-24)(JDYX2016QN013) （YZ14-24）
上海交通大学医学院医院药学科研基金 （）
