福建农林大学学报（自然科学版）2018，Vol.47Issue(1)：21-25,5.DOI:10.13323/j.cnki.j.fafu(nat.sci.).2018.01.004
运用GARP生态位模型预测福寿螺在中国的潜在适生区
Predicting the potential suitable distribution area of Pomacea canliculate in China based on the GARP ecological niche modeling
摘要
Abstract
To predict potential suitable distribution area so as to prevent and control Pomacea canaliculata effectively,environmental factors about its distribution were screened according to point data of its current distribution by knife-cut method. Then P.canalicula-ta potential distribution was predicted by GARP ecological niche modeling,whose results was subsequently revised with temperature being the limiting factor. At last,receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve was used to evaluate the precision of the revised re-sults. The results showed that the suitable areas mainly included Hainan Province,Guangdong Province,Fujian Province,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Zhejiang Province,Jiangxi Province,Hunan Province,Guizhou Province and Hubei Province,as well as most part of Anhui Province,Yunnan Province and Shaanxi Province,the southeastern part of Sichuan Province and the southern part of Jiangsu Province,adding up to a total area of 2.079 million km2,accounting for 21.58% of national area. The marginal suit-able areas were mainly in the middle of Sichuan Province and the southern part of Shaanxi Province,accounting for 0.43% of nation-al area. Low fitness area was mainly in the northern region of China,accounting for 77.99% of national area. The area under curve (ROC) was 0.9,indicating that the accuracy of the prediction results was very high.关键词
福寿螺/潜在适生区/地理信息系统/GARP生态位模型Key words
Pomacea canaliculata/potential suitable distribution area/geographic information system/GARP ecological niche modeling分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
王奕晨,郑鹏,潘文斌..运用GARP生态位模型预测福寿螺在中国的潜在适生区[J].福建农林大学学报（自然科学版）,2018,47(1):21-25,5.基金项目
福州大学科技发展基金资助项目(2013-XY-10). （2013-XY-10）
