福建农林大学学报（自然科学版）2018，Vol.47Issue(1)：74-81,8.DOI:10.13323/j.cnki.j.fafu(nat.sci.).2018.01.012
气候变化下三明市主要针叶树种潜在地理分布的预测
Prediction of geographical distribution of main conifer species under climate change in Sanming City
摘要
Abstract
To obtain the suitable habitat region for the main coniferous species,including Chinese fir and Pinus massoniana in San-ming City,curent distribution data for the 2 species and 19 climatic factors were stimulated by MaxEnt model,also to work out dis-tribution patterns in 2050 and 2070. Then prediction results were evaluated by receiver characteristic curve and dominant climatic factors were evaluated by knife cutting method. The result showed that prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model was overall high, with AUC values being greater than 0.9. The dominant climatic factors were precipitations in both the wettest and coldest seasons, and isothermality which limited distributions of Chinese fir and Pinus massoniana. The central and western region and central part of the study area were the most suitable habitats for Chinese fir and Pinus massoniana,with percentage of area reaching 39% and 31.63%, respectively. From now to 2050,suitable habitat areas for Chinese fir and Pinus massoniana decreased by 10.06% and 6.35%, re-spectively by 2050. While from now to 2070,suitable habitat areas slightly increased by 1.67% and 0.65%,respectively.关键词
针叶树种/气候变化/MaxEnt模型/适宜性Key words
coniferous species/climate change/MaxEnt model/climate suitability分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
张今朝,刘健,余坤勇,曾琪,郑文英,艾婧文,上官莎逸..气候变化下三明市主要针叶树种潜在地理分布的预测[J].福建农林大学学报（自然科学版）,2018,47(1):74-81,8.基金项目
福建省高校产学研合作项目(2015N5010) （2015N5010）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41401385). （41401385）
