气象科学2017，Vol.37Issue(5)：619-628,10.DOI:10.3969/2017jms.0019
基于A-Train卫星编队资料的热带气旋强度估算
Estimating tropical cyclone intensity based on A-Train data
摘要
Abstract
The accurate estimation of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is of great significance for predicting the development of TC and mitigating property loss.TC can be seen as an approximately axisymmetric vortex,nearly in a state of hydrostatic and gradient wind balance in previous studies and a TC intensity estimation model based on cloud top height,cloud top temperature,sea surface temperature was built without consideration of the effects of environmental vertical wind shear on TC intensity.A revised model was presented in this study,which added the vertical wind shear into the original model by means of statistical fitting.63 eye overpass cases were selected from the CloudSat data product of 2006-2015.According to the characteristics of CPR data,a new method was put forward to determine the locations of the eye wall and the outer region based on the vertical distribution of the radar reflectivity factors.The intensities of the 63 TC cases were estimated by using the two models.The results of the original model are generally larger than the best track data.The errors of the revised model are significantly reduced,especially for the cases whose vertical shears are larger than 5 m s-1.The Mean Absolute Error (MAE),Root Mean Square Error (RMSE),and Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) decrease from 5.8 m·s-1,7.7 m·s-1,19.5％ to 3.5 m·-1,4.9 m·-1,11.5％,respectively.Within a certain intensity range,the performance of the revised model enhances as the intensity increasing.The revised model is more suitable for the cases at the mature stage.The estimation accuracy of the northern hemisphere is better than that of the southern hemisphere.The estimation error is smaller at higher latitudes.The results show that it is feasible to use this revised model to estimate the TC intensity,which can be used to supplement existing satellite-based technologies.关键词
热带气旋/强度估算/A-Train/环境垂直风切变Key words
Tropical cyclone/Intensity estimation/A-Train/Environmental vertical wind shear分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李冠林,王蕊,黄云仙,严卫,赵现斌..基于A-Train卫星编队资料的热带气旋强度估算[J].气象科学,2017,37(5):619-628,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金资助项目(41305018) （41305018）
