水土保持研究2018，Vol.25Issue(2)：269-273,5.
2000-2015年河北省林地时空变化特征及驱动力
Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of Forest Change in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2015
摘要
Abstract
Based on the land use data and the main economic indicators of Hebei Province from 2000 to 2015,this paper analysed the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of forest change in Hebei Province.Based on the land use type transfer matrix and land use dynamic model,we explored the spatiotemporal patterns and factors affecting forestland changes from 2000 to 2015 of Hebei Province.On the basis of this,we selected the economic index data which may affect the forest change and use the msgps package in the R language to realize the Adaptive-Lasso variable selection model,and then selected the main economic factors that affect the forest land change.The results showed that from 2000 to 2015 the overall area of woodland showed the increasing trend.The land area transferred into forestland was more than the forestland area transferred into the other lands,and the transformation between grassland and cultivated land is the most prominent.Among the important explanatory variables that are significantly related to forestland changes in Hebei Province,the total population at the end of the year,the disposable income of rural residents and the urban population showed the positive correlation with the change of forest area in Hebei Province.The first industry,fiscal revenue,fiscal expenditure and rural population were negatively correlated with the forest area.Among them,the disposable income of rural residents and fiscal revenue are the leading factors.The change of forestland in Hebei Province is not only related to the policy of returning farmland to forest,but also related to the unique geographical location of Hebei Province.This study method is suitable for the study of forestland driving force in other regions of China,and these results can provide the decision-making basis for the formulation and implementation of forest resource protection and development and utilization policies in Hebei Province.关键词
林地/驱动力/Adaptive-Lasso/R语言/河北省Key words
forest land/driving force/Adaptive-Lasso/R language/Hebei Province分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张译,郑新奇..2000-2015年河北省林地时空变化特征及驱动力[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(2):269-273,5.基金项目
国土资源部公益性行业科研专项经费项目“基于‘生命共同体’的京津冀土地用途管制政策仿真模拟技术”(201511010) （201511010）
