水土保持研究2018，Vol.25Issue(2)：379-386,8.
基于陆地生态系统模型的气候变化条件下中国未来水分状况趋势分析
Temporal Patterns of Water Condition in China Under Climate Change Based on Terrestrial Ecosystem Modelling
摘要
Abstract
Assessing the future water balance of regional terrestrial ecosystems is one of the important scientific problems in ecosystem and global change research.Using historical and future climate scenarios generated from IPCC-related climate models as input to the terrestrial ecosystem model and considering changes in CO2 concentrations,we study the effects of climate change and CO2 concentration doubling on China's future water resources.The results show that the average precipitation in China is gradually increasing,the temperature level is increasing,and the evapotranspiration levels show the trend of sustained growth,and the runoff is the emergence of different wet and dry season.In the scenario of doubled CO2 concentration,the evapotranspiration is slightly lower than that under non-doubled CO2 concentration,while the runoff is slightly higher than that in non-doubled CO2 concentration scenarios.The performance will be more obvious after 2050.关键词
陆地生态系统/水分格局/IBIS模型/气候变化Key words
terrestrial ecosystems/water resources/IBIS/climate change分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杨艳,丁菊花,江洪,彭长辉,朱求安..基于陆地生态系统模型的气候变化条件下中国未来水分状况趋势分析[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(2):379-386,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0501804) （2016YFC0501804）
国家自然科学基金(41571081) （41571081）
