生态学杂志2018，Vol.37Issue(1)：227-236,10.DOI:10.13292/j.1000-4890.201801.018
未来气候变化对福建省水稻产量影响的模拟
Simulation on the impacts of future climate change on rice production in Fujian Province
摘要
Abstract
To evaluate the impacts of future climate change on rice yields in Fujian Province,this study classified Fujian Province into three rice regions,and chose 66 sites and 7 representative rice varieties as study subject.Based on BCC_CSM (Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model) climate model under 2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios:Stable emission path RCP4.5 and high emission path RCP8.5,we simulated the rice yields with CERES-Rice model under rain-fed and irrigated conditions.The results showed that under the future climate change scenarios,with the increase of average temperature in growth period to some extent,the growth period of rice in Fujian Province would be shortened obviously.Without direct effect of CO2 elevation,the simulated rice yields would decrease by no more than 12％ as compared to the baseline,and the rain-fed rice was slightly worse than irrigated rice.In the meantime,different scenarios have different results,and higher yield decrease was simulated under high emission path RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5 climate scenarios.When the fertilization effect of CO2 was considered,the simulated yields were more optimistic with an increase by 15.2％ at most of the study sites.关键词
气候变化/水稻/CERES-Rice模型/RCP情景Key words
climate change/rice/CERES-Rice model/RCP scenario引用本文复制引用
周桐宇,江敏,孙汪亮,孙彬..未来气候变化对福建省水稻产量影响的模拟[J].生态学杂志,2018,37(1):227-236,10.基金项目
福建省自然科学基金项目(2014J01091)和福建农林大学校发展基金项目(CXZX2016165)资助. （2014J01091）
