中国全科医学2018，Vol.21Issue(1)：13-17,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-9572.2018.01.004
我国全科医生数量和分布现状及需要量预测研究
Number, Distribution and Predicted Needed Number of General Practitioners in China
摘要
Abstract
Objective To investigate the number and distribution of general practitioners (GPs) in China, and to predict the needed number of GPs in the future.Methods From China's Health and Family Planning Statistics Yearbook 2014, China's Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook 2014, China's HealthStatistical Yearbook 2016 and we obtained the number of GPs and populations in China and each of its provinces from 2012—2015. SPSS Statistics V22.0 was used to conduct descriptive statistical analysis. Grey model GM (1,1) and workforce-to-population ratio method were employed to predict the needed number of GPs in China from 2016 to 2020.Results From 2012 to 2015, the total number of GPs in China was 109794,145511, 172597 and 188649, respectively. Compared with 2012, it increased by 78855. And its average annual growth rate was 19.77％. By the end of 2015, of the GPs in China, eastern, central and western China, those who achieved a qualification certificate for general practitioner following training accounted for 63.76％ (120285/188649), 60.06％ (62474/104015), 65.20％(29565/45344), 71.89％ (28246/39290), respectively. The number of GPs per 10000 population in China, eastern, central and western China was 1.37, 1.83, 1.05, 1.06, respectively, and the needed number of GPs for China and its three parts would be 86275, 9787, 40764, 34976, respectively if calculated based on the standard of 2 GPs per 10000 population. The results of prediction with grey model GM (1,1) revealed that, in accordance with the natural growth trend of GPs, the number of GPs in China would be 220314 in 2016, 253728 in 2017, 293101 in 2018, 339928 in 2019, 396228 in 2020. Moreover, the number of GPs in China in 2020 would be 277000-415500 if calculated GPs to population ratio based on the standard of 2-3 GPs per 10000 population.Conclusion In recent years, although the number of GPs has increased rapidly, GPs are still greatly needed in China and eastern, central and western China. Moreover, the distribution of GPs is not balanced, and qualified GPs are far from enough. Therefore, the team building for GPs should be strengthened, and the training system for GPs should be improved.关键词
全科医生/数量/分布/预测Key words
General practitioners/Number/Distribution/Forecast分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
伍宝玲,龚韩湘,罗桢妮..我国全科医生数量和分布现状及需要量预测研究[J].中国全科医学,2018,21(1):13-17,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(71503057) （71503057）
