经济与管理研究2018，Vol.39Issue(3)：39-51,13.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2018.03.004
人民币汇率周期如何影响中国对外直接投资?
How does the RMB Exchange Rate Cycle Affect China's Foreign Direct Investment?
摘要
Abstract
This paper uses China's foreign direct investment data from 2003 to 2014,and examines the impact of exchange-related variables on China's foreign direct investment from the perspective of exchange rate cycles, exchange rates,exchange rate fluctuations and exchange rate expectations.The results show that the RMB exchange rate in the appreciation cycle promotes China's foreign direct investment and the RMB exchange rate in the depreciation cycle restrains China's foreign direct investment.The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate expectation inhibits China's foreign direct investment.No matter what stage of the exchange rate,the exchange rate and exchange rate fluctuations have no significant impact on China's foreign direct investment.In addition,the host country's market scale,the relative labor costs and trade openness also affect China's foreign direct investment. When the dynamic panel data model(GMM)is used to control the endogenous problem,the conclusion is still valid,showing that only in the cycle of appreciation or depreciation,the exchange rate will affect China's foreign direct investment,but the impact of the temporary exchange rate change on the foreign direct investment behavior is not significant.关键词
汇率周期/汇率水平/对外直接投资/动态面板GMMKey words
exchange rate cycle/exchange rate/OFDI/dynamic panel data model(GMM)分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
戴金平,尹相颐..人民币汇率周期如何影响中国对外直接投资?[J].经济与管理研究,2018,39(3):39-51,13.基金项目
教育部人文社科重点研究基地项目"跨国并购与国际金融市场"(05JJD630025) （05JJD630025）
