现代制造工程Issue(12)：30-37,8.DOI:10.16731/j.cnki.1671-3133.2017.12.006
不确定概率下累计前景理论在质量和维护联合优化中的应用研究
Application of cumulative prospect theory to joint optimization of quality and maintenance under uncertain probability
摘要
Abstract
The joint optimization of equipment uncertainty degradation and quality fluctuation is studied.Since quality fluctuation is random,Monte Carlo simulation is used to simulate qualified product probability first.Then,constructed equipment degradation and nonconforming rate of quality cost is discussed.According to the maintenance decision's gain and loss functions,the maxi-mum cumulative prospect theory value as the maintenance time threshold is adopted.At last,the probability and reference point, the penalty value which influence on decision making the scheme are discussed.To compare its effective,compared it with the ex-pected utility theory,the case study shows that the prospect theory can better define the maintenance time threshold.关键词
视情维修/前景理论/质量Key words
condition based maintenance/prospect theory/quality分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
方叶祥,汤文成,蒋南云,樊树海,钱庆,吴顺,杨奇..不确定概率下累计前景理论在质量和维护联合优化中的应用研究[J].现代制造工程,2017,(12):30-37,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(71671089) （71671089）
江苏省社科基金项目(15GLB020) （15GLB020）
江苏省博士后基金项目(1301003B) （1301003B）
江苏省高校哲学社会科学重点基金项目(2017ZDIXM075) （2017ZDIXM075）
