南水北调与水利科技2018，Vol.16Issue(1)：22-27,56,7.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.20180004
近50年济南三川流域降雨-径流关系变化分析
Analysis of rainfall-runoff relationship variation characteristics in Sanchuan watershed in Jinan city over recent 50 years
摘要
Abstract
The rainfall-runoff relationship in Sanchuan watershed has changed significantly due to the climate change and inten-sive human activities.The variation of rainfall-runoff relationship threatens the urban water supply and spring protection work in Jinan city.In this paper,we investigated the variation patterns and analyzed the internal mechanism and driving factors that caused the variation of rainfall-runoff relationship in the past fifty years(1964-2011).The Mann-Kendall test,cumulative anom-aly,and sliding partial correlation coefficient methods were used for characteristics analysis.The analysis results indicated that the rainfall increased significantly due to the climate change.However,the runoff decreased insignificantly in the past fifty years due to human activities such as soil and water conservation and water consumption for social and economic purposes.The change-point of rainfall-runoff relationship occurred in 1988.The annual rainfall in 1988-2011 increased by 12.57% and the an-nual runoff decreased by 8.85% as compared to those prior to the change-point(in 1964-1987).The human activities including water storage and supply projects and soil and water conservation practices were the main factors impacting the rainfall-runoff relationship in Sanchuan watershed.The analysis demonstrated that the climate change and human activities had opposite effects on the rainfall-runoff relationship in Sanchuan watershed.关键词
降雨-径流关系/变化/气候变化/人类活动/三川流域Key words
rainfall-runoff relationship/variation/climate change/human activity/Sanchuan watershed分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
刘丽芳,王中根,姜爱华,梁康,刘晓洁..近50年济南三川流域降雨-径流关系变化分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(1):22-27,56,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(41330529 （）
41271048) （）
济南市城乡水务局项目(济水发[2013]378号)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41330529 （济水发[2013]378号）
41271048) （）
Ji′nan City and Rural Water Bureau Project(济水发[2013]378号) （济水发[2013]378号）
