南水北调与水利科技2018，Vol.16Issue(1)：63-68,194,7.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.20180010
南水北调中线工程水源区与海河受水区干旱遭遇研究
The analysis of encounter probability of drought between the water source area and the Hai River water receiving area in the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China
摘要
Abstract
Based on the Copula theory,this study has constructed the joint distribution of SPEI between the water source area and the Hai River water receiving area in the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China(SNWTP)at three time scales,i.e.the flooding season,the dry season,and the whole year.Using the future climate model data,we computed the encounter probability of drought between the water source area and the Hai River water receiving area.The results showed that both the water source area and the water receiving area were undergoing a slight drying trend over the past few decades.Compared with the baseline, the probability of concurrent drought events will increase by different degrees in the RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.Especially,the probability of concurrent drought during the flooding season and the probability of concurrent heavy drought during the dry season in-creased obviously by 2.99% ~6.1% and 2.67% ~3.63%,respectively.The increase in the probability of concurrent drought between the water source area and water receiving area will probably influence the operation of SNWTP.Therefore,it′s necessary to take some a-daptive measures to ensure the safety and efficiency of SNWTP.关键词
南水北调/气候变化/干旱遭遇/Copula理论/干旱指数Key words
South-to-North Water Transfer Project/climate change/drought encounter/Copula theory/drought index分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
余江游,夏军,佘敦先,邹磊,李天生..南水北调中线工程水源区与海河受水区干旱遭遇研究[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(1):63-68,194,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41571028)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41571028) （41571028）
