气象2017，Vol.43Issue(10)：1232-1240,9.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.10.007
一种基于对流云特征温度判别的雷暴解释预报算法
A Thunderstorm Explanation Forecast Algorithm Based on Convective Cloud Characteristic Temperature Judgment
摘要
Abstract
A thunderstorm explanation forecast algorithm based on convective cloud characteristic temperature is proposed in order to satisfy aviation needs for efficient,high spatial and high temporal resolution short-term thunderstorm forecasts.The algorithm is based on convective cloud top and base temperatures,-20℃ and-10℃ isothermal layer geopotential heights.Forecast performance of the algorithm,which is evaluated using the 2012-2014 observations at 35 airports in China and Global Forecast System (GFS)history products,shows high threat scores,positive skill scores and ± 1.5 h forecast time accuracy in all airports.Meanwhile,the algorithm is compared with forecast performance of Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) issued in 2014 by five airport weather services in China.The results show threat scores of the algorithm are a little lower than TAF,and probability of detection equal to or much higher than TAF in the condition issued at least 8 h earlier than TAF.Thunderstorm forecast products based on the algorithm can meet the needs of aviation users.关键词
机场/航路/雷暴/解释预报Key words
airport/airway/thunderstorm/explanation forecast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王秀成,邢杉,赵志军,巩敏莹,李艳芳..一种基于对流云特征温度判别的雷暴解释预报算法[J].气象,2017,43(10):1232-1240,9.基金项目
中国民用航空局空中交通管理局科技项目“一种新的雷暴解释预报算法的研究与应用”资助 （）
