气象2017，Vol.43Issue(10)：1249-1258,10.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.10.009
强厄尔尼诺背景下2015/2016年冬季气候预测的不确定性分析
Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Prediction for the 2015/2016 Winter Under the Background of Super El Ni(n)o Event
摘要
Abstract
There are three main characteristics of the 2015/2016 winter climate.(1) Temperatures were near normal over most parts of China.However,the temperature fluctuated greatly in the season,and extreme temperature events occurred frequently.(2) The area-mean precipitation was above normal in China,which ranked the first since 1951.There were two main rainfall belts over southern China and northern China,respectively.(3) The East Asian winter monsoon varied greatly within the season,which was weak in the earlier stage but strong in the later period.Considering the influence of interdecadal warming background,super El Ni(n)o event and less Arctic sea ice in autumn,as well as prediction results of numerical models,we predicted the winter temperature of 2015/2016 was above normal in most China,which was similar to the actual situation.The prediction of more precipitation in Northeast China,northern part of North China,northeastern Xinjiang and south of the Yangtze River Valley,as well as the prediction of less precipitation in central China were correct.Predicton of the main meteorological disasters and derivative disasters was also consistent with the actual situation.However,the prediction of areas with lower temperature was smaller.We failed to predict the below-normal temperature in mid-western Inner Mongolia,northeastern part of Northwest China,southeastern part of Southwest China,and southern part of South China,especially in January 2016.Although under the same background of strong El Ni(n)o,the climate anomaly in the 2015/2016 winter was different from those of the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 winters.We have analyzed the uncertainty of the influence of El Ni(n)o event.The predictive and analytical capabilities of winter monsoon,interseasonal variation of the Arctic oscillation,and the impact of Arctic sea ice on the winter circulation still need to be further strengthened.关键词
冬季预测/厄尔尼诺事件/冬季风/北极海冰/北极涛动Key words
prediction of winter climate/El Ni(n)o event/East Aisan winter monsoon/Arctic sea ice/Arctic oscillation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
宋文玲,袁媛..强厄尔尼诺背景下2015/2016年冬季气候预测的不确定性分析[J].气象,2017,43(10):1249-1258,10.基金项目
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406024)资助 （气象）
