气象2017，Vol.43Issue(10)：1287-1295,9.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.10.013
2016年登陆和影响福建台风成因分析及预测
Cause Analysis and Forecast Assessment on Typhoon Landing and Impacting Fujian in 2016
摘要
Abstract
In 2016,there were three landing and four impacting typhoons seen in Fujian Province,showing the non-uniform temporal distribution and serious disasters.Analysis indicates that main causation of Fujian typhoon distribution in 2016 is due to the evolution of SSTA (sea surface temperature anomaly) over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and the response of atmospheric circulation.The enhancing or stronger monsoon trough favors the typhoon group-genesis from late July to mid-August over northwestern Pacific and the active influence of Typhoons "Meranti" and "Malakas" within a weak in mid-September,characterized by significant low-frequency variability.Statistical analysis also demonstrates that the number of typhoon genesis and impacting Fujian may be strongly linked to the tropical intraseasonal oscillation.Nearly 70％ typhoons are generated when MJO is active during phases 5-7.Prediction assessment suggests that the extended-range-forecast based on the atmospheric low-frequency theory could fill the gap between monthly-seasonal-term prediction and short-medium-term weather forecast.关键词
台风/福建/登陆/影响/成因Key words
typhoon/Fujian Province/landing/impacting/causation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
池艳珍,何芬,唐振飞..2016年登陆和影响福建台风成因分析及预测[J].气象,2017,43(10):1287-1295,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41575052)和中国气象局气候变化专项(CCFS201619)共同资助 （41575052）
