人民黄河2018，Vol.40Issue(2)：1-9,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2018.02.001
水文模型模拟水文极值的不确定性分析
Uncertainty Analyses of Hydrological Model to Hydrological Extremum
摘要
Abstract
The source area of the Yellow River was chosen as a study region. This study used GLUE method to analyze two typical watershed hydrological models'(HBV and Xinanjiang model)uncertainty to hydrological extremum. This paper selected 0.7,0.6 and 0.5 as thresholds of objective likelihood function,analyzed hydrological thresholds of floods and droughts(insurance rates was 10%, 25%, 75% and 90%, confidence was 95%)and selected simulation results during wet year(1981),normal year(1968)and dry year(1997). The results show that HBV and Xinanjiang model do well in the simulation of floods,and the uncertainty of flood simulation is lower than that of in dry sea?sons;from the difference of two hydrological models' simulations' estimation interval,we can find that,to the measured values,the estima?tion interval of HBV model is lower in flood year and higher in dry year,and there isn't obvious trend in normal year,however,Xinanjiang model doesn't have this characteristic;under the same parameters' sampling method, HBV model's uncertainty is more obvious than Xi?nanjiang model;HBV and Xinanjiang model's uncertainty are very high in the simulation of dry season's indexes(Q90and Q75); Xinan?jiang model's uncertainty and estimation interval of flood year's index(Q25and Q10)is lower than that of HBV.关键词
HBV模型/新安江模型/GLUE法/不确定性分析/水文极值/黄河源区Key words
HBV model/Xinanjiang model/GLUE method/uncertainty analysis/hydrological extremum/source area of Yellow River/分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王思媛,胡高辉,孙利敏,陈浩,杨涛..水文模型模拟水文极值的不确定性分析[J].人民黄河,2018,40(2):1-9,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41371051) （41371051）
"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAC10B01). （2013BAC10B01）
