国际医药卫生导报2018，Vol.24Issue(4)：536-540,5.DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.1007-1245.2018.04.025
出血性脑卒中发病的日节律及SARIMA模型的定量预测
Circadian rhythm and quantitave predication based on SARIMA model of hemorrhagic stroke
刘秋菊 1姚延松 2赵岩江 3赵玉红 1盛雪平 1曹晓盼1
作者信息
- 1. 463100 河南省遂平县人民医院神经内科
- 2. 463100 河南省遂平县公疗医院
- 3. 463100 河南省遂平县仁安医院
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Objective To understand the distribution characterstics of circadian rhythm of hemorrhagic stroke and to develop a time series predication model,so as to provide some references for the primary prevention of hemorrhagic stroke.Methods A total of 895 patients with hemorrhagic stroke from 3 hospital were enrolled from June 1 to 30 in 2017.The circadian occurrence times were collected.The time series analysis was explored using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA).Results There were statistical differences in occurrence cases between different periods (P ＜ 0.05).243 cases (27.15％) occurred hemorrhagic stroke from Beijing time 8:00 to 11:00 and 297 cases (33.18％) 18:00 to 21:00.By identifying and testing,a SARIMA (1,0,1) × (1,1,1) 24 model was developed and it was accurate for the prediction of the history data.Conclusions The peak periods of hemorrhagic stroke occurrence are Beijing time 8:00 to 11:00 and 18:00 to 21:00.SARIMA (1,0,1) × (1,1,1) 24 model is accurate for prediction of circadian occurrence tendency of hemorrhagic stroke and can provide more reference information for taking active prevention and treatment measures.关键词
出血性脑卒中/日节律/时间序列/SARIMA/预测Key words
Hemorrhagic stroke/Circadian rhythm/Time series/Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model/Prediction引用本文复制引用
刘秋菊,姚延松,赵岩江,赵玉红,盛雪平,曹晓盼..出血性脑卒中发病的日节律及SARIMA模型的定量预测[J].国际医药卫生导报,2018,24(4):536-540,5.
