气候变化研究进展2018，Vol.14Issue(1)：11-20,10.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.034
降水集中度的变化特征及影响因素分析——以山西为例
An analysis of precipitation concentration variation characteristics and influential factors in Shanxi province, China
摘要
Abstract
Shanxi province is located on the border of monsoon in the north of China,which is across multiple latitudes. The mountains and basins in the study area are staggered. Therefore,the influential factors of precipitation in the study area are complicated. Based on the daily precipitation data of 14 rain gauging stations in Shanxi from 1957 to 2014,the precipitation concentration index (CI) and extreme precipitation index (R95p,R99p) were calculated at annual scale and multi-year scale. Mann-Kendall method was utilized to analyze the spatio-temporal variation of precipitation concentration,and its influential factors. The results showed that the positive correlation between R99pand CI at annual scale is significant,which means high precipitation concentration will increase the possibility of extreme precipitation. Precipitation concentration shows obvious differences in latitudinal zonality and local space at multi-year scale. Due to a temperate continental monsoon type,the precipitation concentration degree is relatively low and the change range is relatively narrow (0.59-0.64). In general,the concentration of precipitation is decreasing at inter annual scale,and the descending trend of Wutaishan,Youyu,Wuzhai and Yuncheng is significant at the 0.05 significance level. The possibility of extreme precipitation in the central basin area is greater than that in the plateau high-mountain area due to the higher CI value and insignificant declined trends detected. The correlation between multi-year scale precipitation CI and elevation,latitude,longitude,mean annual precipitation and mean annual rainy days is not significant. The higher elevation and larger amplitude make the influence of elevation on the concentration of precipitation at annual scale increase. The correlation between precipitation CI and NAO,ENSO air-sea interaction and EASMI is not significant. However,there is a significant negative correlation between annual CI and PDO. The possibility of extreme precipitation is greater when PDO is negative with the Western Pacific Subtropical High westward and stronger. The results demonstrated geographic conditions and air-sea interactions exert a complex influence on precipitation concentration at a regional scale.关键词
降水集中指数(CI)/极端降水/时空分布/太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)/山西Key words
Precipitation Concentration Index (CI)/Extreme precipitation/Temporal and spatial distribution/Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)/Shanxi province引用本文复制引用
袁瑞强,王亚楠,王鹏,王仕琴,陈宇宏..降水集中度的变化特征及影响因素分析——以山西为例[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(1):11-20,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41301033) （41301033）
