气候变化研究进展2018，Vol.14Issue(1)：50-58,9.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.161
共享社会经济路径下中国及分省经济变化预测
Projection of national and provincial economy under the shared socioeconomic pathways in China
摘要
Abstract
Based on national demographic and economic census and annual statistical yearbooks,this paper focused on the projection of national and provincial economy in China during 2020-2100,using Cobb-Douglas model under the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results show that: (1) national economy will keep rising up to 2070-2080 and then decline under sustainability (SSP1) and inequality (SSP4),while GDP will continue to grow under middle of the road (SSP2) and fossil-fueled development (SSP5) and stagnate after 2040 under regional rivalry (SSP3). (2) GDP can maintain about 6.0% growth rate before 2020s under all SSPs,but will slow down to less than 5.0% afterwards and may stagnate or even show negative growth. (3) The social and economic development policies have direct impacts on the provincial economic growth. GDP at the Jiangsu,Guangdong and Shandong provinces ranks in the top three under SSP1~SSP5 in 2020s. In 2090s,provinces ranks in the top three keep consistent with 2020s under SSP1 and SSP5,but Zhejiang will rank the second under SSP2,Henan enters the top three under SSP3,and the top three provinces will be changed as Guangdong,Jiangsu and Zhejiang under SSP4. (4) As for growth rate of GDP,Shandong and Zhejiang can stay above 6.0% under SSP1,SSP2 and SSP5 in 2020s,only Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces can maintain about 5.0% and some provinces might show negative growth under SSP3 and SSP4. In 2090s,all provincial GDP growth rate will be less than 1.0%.关键词
共享社会经济路径(SSPs)/柯布道格拉斯预测模型/经济预测/分省/中国Key words
Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)/Cobb-Douglas model/Economic projection/Provincial level/China引用本文复制引用
姜彤,赵晶,曹丽格,王艳君,苏布达,景丞,王润,高超..共享社会经济路径下中国及分省经济变化预测[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(1):50-58,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603701) （2017YFA0603701）
中国清洁发展机制(CDM)基金赠款项目 （CDM）
中国气象局气候变化专项"气候变化影响综合评估"(CCSF201722) （CCSF201722）
