生态学报2018，Vol.38Issue(3)：917-925,9.DOI:10.5846/stxb201612262674
基于WRF模式评估土地利用/覆被变化的气候和水文效应
Quantifying the climatic and hydrological effects of land use/cover change based on Weather Research and Forecasting model
摘要
Abstract
Currently,most studies have been conducted to determine the impact of land use/cover change (LUCC) on the runoff yield and conflux (Direct Hydrological Effect),while only a few studies have been conducted to determine the runoff change caused by the LUCC-induced regional climate change (Indirect Hydrological Effect).In this study,the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and elasticity method were used to investigate the indirect hydrological effect caused by LUCC in the Yihe River from 1990 to 2010.The results suggested that the WRF model simulated the temperature of the study area well with high correlation coefficients (0.86-0.97,P＜0.001) between the modeled and measured values.Although the simulation precision of model in precipitation was lower than that in temperature,the correlation coefficients ranged from 0.41 to 0.91 with P＜0.05 statistically significant level.The main land use in the study area was farmland (including dry and paddy lands),representing approximately 80％ of the total area.In the recent 20 years,the land use in the study area transformed gradually from the dry land to the urbanized land (747.3km2) and bare/sparse vegetation (132.4km2).The temperature increased by 0.2℃ in January and October and decreased by 0.2℃ in July,which was caused by the LUCC,while the temperature in April was basically stable.The LUCC caused the largest temperature changes,i.e.,0.4-1.3℃ in the mixed forests and water bodies,and the smallest temperature changes,i.e.,＜0.1 ℃ in the deciduous broadleaf forests and wetlands.The LUCC showed a weak impact on the precipitation change in January,April,and October,while substantially affecting the precipitation in July with a decrease of 23.7mm.Therefore,the LUCC significantly affected the summer precipitation because of the abundant precipitation in summer,thus changing the moisture fluxes in the study area.The results also indicate that the spatial variations in precipitation due to the LUCC were weakly associated with the underlying surface.Elastic analysis showed that the annual temperature and precipitation changed by 1％ during 1960-2013,which can induce runoffs to change by 1.8％ and 2.4％,respectively.During 1990-2010,the LUCC-induced changes of precipitation and temperature led runoffs to change by 18.4％ and 1.7％,respectively.关键词
LUCC/径流/WRF/气候效应/间接水文效应Key words
LUCC/runoff/WRF/climate effect/indirect hydrological effect引用本文复制引用
廉丽姝,李宝富,陈忠升,陈亚宁,孙小银..基于WRF模式评估土地利用/覆被变化的气候和水文效应[J].生态学报,2018,38(3):917-925,9.基金项目
山东省自然科学基金(BS2014HZ022,ZR2015DL001) （BS2014HZ022,ZR2015DL001）
